Solar Growth Expected to Cool Off in 2024 – And That's Okay

023 was a year of paradoxes in the energy sector. Traditional fuels – oil, gas, and coal – hit all-time highs in consumption. Yet, renewable energy wasn't far behind in the spotlight, Wood Mackenzie report says. The global wind and solar generation soared, marking a 55% increase compared to 2020. The energy landscape is evolving, and it's doing so at a pace faster than many anticipated.

Now that we're cruising through 2024, some of the current trends persist, but new challenges and opportunities are also on the horizon. One of the most significant developments for this year is the anticipated slowdown in global solar energy growth. But here's the catch – this isn't a downward spiral; it's a sign of the industry's maturation.

From 2019 to 2023, the solar sector saw an impressive average yearly growth of 28% in capacity installations, peaking at a staggering 56% in 2023. However, from 2024 onwards, the experts expect this growth to stabilize, with averages hovering around zero. This shift mirrors the classic 'S-curve' pattern typical in industries – a rapid rise followed by a steady phase as the market grows.

Yet, not all regions are at the same spot on this growth curve. While the global solar market has bulked up significantly, places like Africa and the Middle East are still early in their solar journey, lagging behind the solar trailblazers such as Asia Pacific and Europe.

So, what’s the big picture? The world of energy is becoming increasingly diverse and dynamic. The shift towards renewable sources is in full swing, though the path isn't linear. As 2024 unfolds, one thing remains certain: the energy landscape is constantly morphing, with old and new sources blending and shaping an ever-changing energy scene.

Solar incentives and rebates vary by location, offering financial benefits such as tax credits, rebates, and net metering to encourage solar adoption and reduce costs for consumers.

Sources:

https://www.woodmac.com/news/